Tony's Predictions for 2021

Let's start this off with some predictions.

Scott Alexander (of Astral Codex Ten) motivations and rules:

  • The goal of the exercise is to calibrate my ability to know things
  • The predictions will be graded based on what will be true by Jan 1, 2022
  • I haven't done any additional research on these predictions for this post

Crypto Markets

  1. S&P above $4,184: 80%
  2. ... above $4600: 50%
  3. ... above .08 BTC: 25%
  4. BTC above $50K: 90%
  5. ... above $100K: 60%
  6. ETH above $2.5K: 90%
  7. ... above $5K: 75%
  8. ... above 0.05 BTC: 80%
  9. ... above 0.10 BTC: 50%
  10. DPI above $500: 80%
  11. ... above $1K: 60%
  12. ... above 0.15 ETH: 80%
  13. ... above 0.30 ETH: 40%
  14. Dominant narrative in crypto is digital gold: 40%
  15. ... is decentralized finance: 70%
  16. ... is non fungible tokens: 20%
  17. ... is web3: 5%
  18. We see a drawdown in BTC, ETH, or DPI of >40% over one week: 80%
  19. ... of >60% over one week: 25%
  20. Cryptopunk floor price greater than $60K: 80%
  21. ... greater than 1 BTC: 90%
  22. ... greater than 17 ETH: 50%
  23. Meebits floor price greater than $3K: 40%
  24. ... greater than 1 ETH: 20%
  25. ... greater than 0.5 ETH: 40%
  26. Most valuable NFT sale is greater than $70M: 10%

Crypto Usage

  1. FAANG company announces 1% or greater BTC exposure on balance sheet: 20%
  2. ... ETH exposure on balance sheet: 5%
  3. A top 20 bank directly lends through a DeFi lending protocol: 60%
  4. TVL in DeFi across major chains greater than $200B: 80%
  5. ... greater than $500B: 60%
  6. ... greater than $1T: 25%
  7. Losses due to hacks, exploits, rugs, etc. greater than $500M: 90%
  8. ... greater than $1B: 75%
  9. ... greater than $2B: 50%
  10. Pancakeswap volumes are greater than Uniswap volumes: 30%
  11. ETH 2.0 Merge occurs: 40%
  12. EIP 1559 occurs: 80%
  13. Diem launches: 80%
  14. ... with smart contracts: 10%
  15. ... with smart contracts usable by anybody (permissionless): 1%
  16. TVL on Ethereum roll-ups exceed TVL on Ethereum: 20%
  17. Exchange volumes on Ethereum roll-ups exceed exchange volumes on Ethereum: 10%
  18. TVL on an Ethereum killer exceeds TVL on Ethereum: 30%
  19. Exchange volumes on an Ethereum killer exceeds exchange volumes on Ethereum: 70%
  20. BTC ETF launches: 60%
  21. ETH ETF launches: 40%
  22. Stablecoin lending rates at Genesis are greater than 5%: 95%
  23. ... greater than 10%: 70%
  24. ... greater than 20%: 20%
  25. A private version of a DeFi use case (e.g. auctions, transactions) reaches 50% of the adoption of the public version: 1%
  26. ... reaches 25% of the adoption of the public version: 5%
  27. ... reaches 10% of the adoption of the public version: 10%
  28. Undercollateralized lending underwritten using on-chain activity surpasses $5M: 50%
  29. ... surpasses $10M: 40%
  30. ... surpasses $100M: 20%
  31. The plurality of personal accounts I see on my twitter feed are cartoon or anime avatars: 60%
  32. ... are NFT avatars: 40%
  33. ... are real faces: 10%

Crypto Venture

  1. A crypto fund raises greater than $1B: 80%
  2. ... greater than $2B: 60%
  3. A pre-product seed deal gets done at greater than $250M equity or $500M token valuation: 75%
  4. ... greater than $500M equity or $1B token valuation: 40%
  5. Most high profile preseed/seed deals will be led by DAOs: 15%
  6. ... will be led by traditional VCs: 10%
  7. ... will be led by crypto funds with greater than $200M AUM: 80%
  8. Most high profile launches will be fair launches: 0.1%

Politics and Macro

  1. Capital gains taxes increase meaningfully: 10%
  2. A wealth tax is enacted: 5%
  3. ... in California: 10%
  4. Polling suggests republicans will win the senate in the 2022 midterms: 70%
  5. ... will win the house in the 2022 midterms: 70%
  6. Newsom is recalled: 10%
  7. The COVID vaccine patents are suspended: 90%
  8. All COVID restrictions are lifted at the federal level: 80%
  9. ... in California: 70%
  10. Unemployment is greater than 4.5%: 20%
  11. ... is greater than 5%: 10%
  12. 10Y treasury rates greater than 1.5%: 80%
  13. ... greater than 2%: 60%
  14. ... greater than 2.5%: 25%

Work

  1. Work full time on Cozy: 99%
  2. redacted: 80%
  3. ... redacted: 70%
  4. ... redacted: 60%
  5. redacted: 40%
  6. Start a venture fund: 5%

Personal

  1. Write a morning journal more than 70% of days: 99%
  2. ... more than 80% of days: 95%
  3. ... more than 90% of days: 90%
  4. Write a blog post more than 70% of weeks (starting now): 80%
  5. ... more than 80% of weeks: 60%
  6. ... more than 90% of weeks: 50%
  7. Squat for reps over 285lbs: 95%
  8. ... over 300lbs: 90%
  9. ... over 350 lbs: 40%
  10. Weigh over 150lbs: 99%
  11. ... over 160lbs: 30%
  12. ... over 170lbs: 5%
  13. redacted: 20%
  14. ... redacted: 50%
  15. ... redacted: 80%
  16. Live in the same house: 95%
  17. House will have appreciated by more than 0%: 95%
  18. ... by more than 5%: 60%
  19. ... by more than 10%: 20%
  20. Read more than 50 books: 1%
  21. ... more than 40 books: 20%
  22. ... more than 25 books: 80%
  23. Donate greater than 10% of my net income: 95%
  24. ... greater than 1% of my total crypto holdings: 95%
  25. redacted: 90%
  26. ... redacted: 75%
  27. ... redacted: 40%
  28. Make greater than 10 angel investments: 99%
  29. ... greater than 20 angel investments: 60%
  30. ... greater than 50 angel investments: 20%
  31. Go to therapy on a regular schedule: 90%
  32. Married to Anna: 99%
  33. Parents alive: 99%
  34. Gary TikTok greater than 500K followers: 75%
  35. ... greater than 1M followers: 60%
  36. Anna cast in major show or movie: 30%
  37. ... in major commercial: 40%
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